Refined cobalt prices fell by 2,500 yuan in a single week, while cobalt salt prices remained strong. Some Co3O4 enterprises suspended their quotations. [Weekly Observation]

SMM reported on July 11: This week, the quotes for cobalt-related products mostly rose, except for refined cobalt, whose quotes were affected by market news, leading to a decline in transaction prices. The performance of other cobalt salts remained firm. Among them, enterprises in the cobalt sulphate sector maintained a bullish sentiment, and the quotes for new goods in the hands of smelters gradually increased. Some traders also raised the prices of their old goods... SMM has compiled the price changes of cobalt-related products this week, as detailed below:

Refined cobalt:

According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quotes for refined cobalt continued to decline this week, with five consecutive trading days of decline from July 7 to July 11. As of July 11, the spot quotes for refined cobalt fell to 240,000-256,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 248,250 yuan/mt, a cumulative decrease of 2,500 yuan/mt from July 4, representing a decline of approximately 1%.

》Check SMM cobalt and lithium spot quotes

According to SMM survey, on the supply side, refined cobalt smelters maintained long-term contract supplies, with fewer spot quotes. The ex-factory prices remained unchanged due to production costs. The domestic futures market was affected by market news, leading to a decline in prices. Both traders' quotes and transaction prices followed suit. On the demand side, due to the still high social inventory of refined cobalt and weakened downstream demand amid high temperatures, most downstream producers maintained a just-in-time procurement rhythm, with actual transactions remaining relatively weak.SMM predicts that refined cobalt prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Subsequent price trends will require close attention to cost increases and the digestion of social inventory.

Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride):

Cobalt sulphate:

According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quotes for cobalt sulphate continued to rise this week. As of July 11, the spot quotes for cobalt sulphate rose to 49,400-52,050 yuan/mt, with an average price of 50,725 yuan/mt, an increase of 1,075 yuan/mt from July 4, representing a growth rate of 2.17%.

》Check SMM cobalt and lithium spot quotes

According to SMM,the transaction prices in the cobalt sulphate market this week rose to 49,000-52,000 yuan/mt,10,000 yuan/mt,with many enterprises reporting transactions near 50,000 yuan/mt,and some large smelters also achieving a certain volume of transactions near 52,000 yuan/mt.On the supply side, enterprises currently maintained a bullish sentiment, with smelters gradually raising the quotes for new goods in their hands, and some traders also raising the prices of their old goods. On the demand side, downstream demand showed differentiation. NCM orders still did not see significant improvement, with enterprises temporarily adopting a wait-and-see attitude, focusing on digesting previous inventory. Cobalt oxide and traditional chemical enterprises found the current prices relatively favorable, with some enterprises making purchases in the market. Refined cobalt procurement remained suspended due to its poor economic viability.

Overall, cobalt sulphate market saw improved inquiry sentiment this week, with actual transactions also rising moderately compared to previous weeks. Under persistent raw material cost pressure, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to maintain strength next week.

Cobalt chloride side:

According to SMM spot quotations,cobalt chloridespot prices kept climbing this week. As of July 11, spot prices rose to 61,650-63,000 yuan/mt, averaging 62,336 yuan/mt, up 700 yuan/mt (1.14%) from July 4.

SMM learned that smelters maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side with limited market transactions, while downstream enterprises held relatively sufficient inventory levels with active inquiries but cautious trading. Current transaction prices stood around 6.2, with few deals concluded at 63,000 yuan/mt.Cobalt chloride prices are expected to remain stable within the 6.1-6.3 range in the short term.

Co3O4 side:

SMM spot data showed Co3O4 prices rose consecutively this week, reaching 202,000-212,000 yuan/mt as of July 11, averaging 207,000 yuan/mt, up 3,000 yuan/mt (1.47%) from July 4.

SMM survey revealedcurrent Co3O4 producer quotations ranged between200,000-220,000yuan/mt, with some firms suspending quotes as both upstream and downstream adopted wait-and-see approaches. Most transactions involved long-term contract deliveries.Supply side, Co3O4 plants limited shipments while monitoring market sentiment and demand. Demand side, LCO cathode plants held relatively low inventory but remained cautious due to market sentiment. Producers indicated expected transaction prices of 210,000-230,000 yuan/mt, though high-price deals remained scarce. Long-term pricing will hinge on cobalt inventory levels, particularly whether current stocks can sustain through December.

Corporate news:Huayou Cobalt released its H1 2025 earnings forecast, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6-2.8 billion yuan, up 55.62%-67.59% YoY.

The company attributed significant profit growth to sustained operating advantages from integration, cobalt price rebound, management reforms, and cost-cutting measures. Firstly, on the upstream resource side, the Indonesia Huafei project of Huayou Cobalt achieved full production and exceeded its target, while the Huayue project maintained stable and high output with further cost reductions, enhancing the company's self-sufficiency rate in MHP raw materials. On the downstream cathode material business side, growth resumed, technological innovation capabilities significantly improved, and the competitive strategy of "leading in products and costs" further highlighted the company's integrated operating advantages. Secondly, benefiting from the rebound in cobalt prices, the company's cobalt product profitability gradually improved. Meanwhile, the company continued to promote management reforms, vigorously advanced cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, sought benefits from management, achieved remarkable results in cost control and reduction, and continuously improved operational efficiency.

From the perspective of cobalt price performance in the first half of the year, as of June 30, the average spot price of refined cobalt was reported at 249,250 yuan/mt, an increase of 78,750 yuan/mt from 170,500 yuan/mt at the end of 2024, representing a 46.19% increase.

Dongwu Securities commented that Huayou Cobalt would have 20,000 mt of cobalt by-products from its nickel hydrometallurgy project in Indonesia in 2025, corresponding to an attributable amount of 12,000 mt. In the second quarter of 2025, the average cobalt price rose to 240,000 yuan/mt, and Dongwu Securities expected a profit increment of around 200 million yuan in the second quarter. On June 21, DRC announced a further three-month extension of the temporary ban on cobalt exports. Dongwu Securities expected that industry inventory would be basically digested by August-September, and cobalt prices would usher in a second wave of increases. If cobalt prices rise to over 300,000 yuan/mt, the corresponding company's performance would have an elasticity of 1.5-2 billion yuan. In addition, some cobalt products sold are refined from purchased cobalt intermediate products, priced at cobalt price * pricing coefficient, and processing profits would increase under rising prices.

Regarding Tengyuan Cobalt, three months after the DRC's ban on cobalt exports from salt plants, on July 7, Tengyuan Cobalt responded on an interactive platform that the production line of Tengyuan in DRC was in normal operation. In addition, the new 5,000 mt production line for cobalt tetroxide at Ganzhou Tengchi had entered the trial production stage.

This project could be traced back to December 2024, when Tengyuan Cobalt announced a plan to invest in and construct the "Technical Transformation and Upgrading Project for Annual Production of 5,000 mt of Refined Cobalt Products" within the company's factory area at No. 9 Xijin Avenue, Ganzhou High-tech Industrial Development Zone, with a project investment amount of 98.9019 million yuan.

When mentioning the purpose of this project, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that, in the face of market and policy evolution, the market demand for refined cobalt products was growing. The company closely followed industry development trends, actively adopted new technologies and processes in the refined cobalt industry, and laid out advanced refined cobalt production lines. The core goal of the project was to further reduce costs, improve efficiency, enhance the market competitiveness of refined cobalt products through technological innovation and process optimization, and thereby explore new economic growth points.

Regarding the project's impact on the company, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the implementation of this project is based on the needs of industry market dynamics and the company's strategic planning. By introducing new technologies and processes, the company aims to create entirely new production equipment and lines, achieving technological upgrades in the refined cobalt production process. This will help the company optimize its product structure, reduce production costs, improve product quality, enhance the company's sustained profitability, and drive the company towards high-quality development. The smooth implementation of the project will create greater value for the company and its shareholders, and have a profound positive impact on the company's healthy development. This project will be invested in and constructed with self-raised funds, and will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's financial or operational conditions, nor will it harm the interests of the company or its shareholders.